{
  "title": "BTC/USDT — 2026 SMA100 volatilite hedefi taraması",
  "report_asof": "2026-10-22",
  "period_start": "2026-01-01",
  "last_completed_utc_daily_candle": "2026-10-21",
  "scored_days": 294,
  "warmup_only_days": 100,
  "initial_usdt": 10000,
  "target_percentages": [
    10,
    20,
    30,
    40,
    50,
    60,
    70,
    80,
    90,
    100,
    105,
    110,
    120,
    130,
    140,
    150,
    160,
    170,
    180,
    190,
    200
  ],
  "baseline_target_percentage": 100,
  "focus_target_percentages": [
    100,
    105,
    110
  ],
  "base_commission_per_side": 0.001,
  "base_adverse_slippage_per_side": 0.0005,
  "long_only": true,
  "leverage": false,
  "maximum_btc_weight": 1.0,
  "rules": {
    "trend": "close > SMA100",
    "volatility": "sample standard deviation of last 30 simple daily returns, ddof=1; annual scale sqrt(365)",
    "target_btc_weight": "min(1, volatility_target / annualized_volatility) if trend is on, otherwise 0",
    "execution": "Previous completed close decision; next-open post-cost target allocation; costed terminal liquidation."
  },
  "new_independent_out_of_sample": false,
  "automatic_target_selection": false,
  "independent_audit": {
    "status": "pass",
    "independent_decimal_checks": 672,
    "baseline_checks": 12,
    "total_checks": 684,
    "scenario_count": 42,
    "monthly_count": 420
  },
  "targets_with_daily_equity_identical_to_100_percent_both_costs": [
    60,
    70,
    80,
    90,
    100,
    105,
    110,
    120,
    130,
    140,
    150,
    160,
    170,
    180,
    190,
    200
  ],
  "comparison": [
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      "volatility_target": 0.1,
      "cost_multiplier": 1,
      "initial_usdt": 10000.0,
      "final_usdt": 10195.481475350582,
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      "max_drawdown": -0.04905524629340052,
      "fees_usdt": 23.900712448960725,
      "modelled_slippage_usdt": 11.950414057629226,
      "fills": 111,
      "closed_episodes": 3
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    {
      "volatility_target": 0.1,
      "cost_multiplier": 2,
      "initial_usdt": 10000.0,
      "final_usdt": 10158.748976120543,
      "total_return": 0.015874897612054184,
      "max_drawdown": -0.049929689537585475,
      "fees_usdt": 47.71491273964152,
      "modelled_slippage_usdt": 23.857686691394616,
      "fills": 111,
      "closed_episodes": 3
    },
    {
      "volatility_target": 0.2,
      "cost_multiplier": 1,
      "initial_usdt": 10000.0,
      "final_usdt": 10367.461061629207,
      "total_return": 0.03674610616292151,
      "max_drawdown": -0.09629811410287437,
      "fees_usdt": 47.07176149470569,
      "modelled_slippage_usdt": 23.535990264553043,
      "fills": 111,
      "closed_episodes": 3
    },
    {
      "volatility_target": 0.2,
      "cost_multiplier": 2,
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      "final_usdt": 10293.451470933778,
      "total_return": 0.029345147093377877,
      "max_drawdown": -0.09795707132413012,
      "fees_usdt": 93.80563242442194,
      "modelled_slippage_usdt": 46.9032503725614,
      "fills": 111,
      "closed_episodes": 3
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    {
      "volatility_target": 0.3,
      "cost_multiplier": 1,
      "initial_usdt": 10000.0,
      "final_usdt": 10659.566247773268,
      "total_return": 0.065956624777326,
      "max_drawdown": -0.12990436784620452,
      "fees_usdt": 63.8300933626281,
      "modelled_slippage_usdt": 31.915235509204102,
      "fills": 96,
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      "volatility_target": 0.3,
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      "final_usdt": 10556.65500699035,
      "total_return": 0.05566550069903542,
      "max_drawdown": -0.1314051799922693,
      "fees_usdt": 127.03638196533797,
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      "fills": 96,
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      "volatility_target": 0.4,
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      "volatility_target": 0.5,
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    {
      "volatility_target": 1.7,
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    {
      "volatility_target": 1.8,
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    {
      "volatility_target": 1.8,
      "cost_multiplier": 2,
      "initial_usdt": 10000.0,
      "final_usdt": 11014.258494826352,
      "total_return": 0.10142584948263478,
      "max_drawdown": -0.1339891072006143,
      "fees_usdt": 117.62172807838868,
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      "fills": 6,
      "closed_episodes": 3
    },
    {
      "volatility_target": 1.9,
      "cost_multiplier": 1,
      "initial_usdt": 10000.0,
      "final_usdt": 11113.834415041007,
      "total_return": 0.11138344150410018,
      "max_drawdown": -0.13268748762225846,
      "fees_usdt": 59.07796517389936,
      "modelled_slippage_usdt": 29.539283199861593,
      "fills": 6,
      "closed_episodes": 3
    },
    {
      "volatility_target": 1.9,
      "cost_multiplier": 2,
      "initial_usdt": 10000.0,
      "final_usdt": 11014.258494826352,
      "total_return": 0.10142584948263478,
      "max_drawdown": -0.1339891072006143,
      "fees_usdt": 117.62172807838868,
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      "fills": 6,
      "closed_episodes": 3
    },
    {
      "volatility_target": 2.0,
      "cost_multiplier": 1,
      "initial_usdt": 10000.0,
      "final_usdt": 11113.834415041007,
      "total_return": 0.11138344150410018,
      "max_drawdown": -0.13268748762225846,
      "fees_usdt": 59.07796517389936,
      "modelled_slippage_usdt": 29.539283199861593,
      "fills": 6,
      "closed_episodes": 3
    },
    {
      "volatility_target": 2.0,
      "cost_multiplier": 2,
      "initial_usdt": 10000.0,
      "final_usdt": 11014.258494826352,
      "total_return": 0.10142584948263478,
      "max_drawdown": -0.1339891072006143,
      "fees_usdt": 117.62172807838868,
      "modelled_slippage_usdt": 58.81205473146794,
      "fills": 6,
      "closed_episodes": 3
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Known 2026 history, not new independent out-of-sample proof.",
    "Parameter sweep descriptions do not automatically choose or deploy a target.",
    "A volatility budget is not a promised return or maximum loss. Even a 200 percent target cannot exceed 100 percent BTC allocation.",
    "Daily-close drawdown excludes intraday drawdown. No actual liquidity, partial fills, lot sizes, taxes or cash interest.",
    "No strategy guarantees profit."
  ],
  "source": "Binance public BTCUSDT UTC daily candles"
}